Real GDP Expected to Grow by 6.4% in FY25, Agricultural Sector Shows Signs of Recovery

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The National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the First Advance Estimates for India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2024-25. These estimates, which include key expenditure components at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, indicate a real GDP growth rate of 6.4% for FY25. This is lower than the provisional growth estimate of 8.2% for FY24. Nominal GDP, however, is projected to grow at a rate of 9.7% in FY25, slightly higher than the 9.6% growth in FY24.

Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is also estimated to grow at 6.4% in FY25 compared to 7.2% in FY24. The nominal GVA growth rate is projected to increase to 9.3% in FY25, up from 8.5% in FY24.

One of the highlights is the recovery in the agriculture and allied sector, with real GVA expected to grow by 3.8% in FY25, a significant improvement from the 1.4% growth observed in FY24. The construction sector and the financial, real estate, and professional services sectors are expected to grow robustly, with real GVA growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively, in FY25.

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Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant prices has shown a strong growth rate of 7.3% in FY25, compared to 4.0% in FY24. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) has also improved, with a growth rate of 4.1% in FY25, up from 2.5% in the previous fiscal year.

In absolute terms, Real GDP at constant prices is estimated to reach ₹184.88 lakh crore in FY25, compared to ₹173.82 lakh crore in FY24. Nominal GDP is projected to reach ₹324.11 lakh crore in FY25, up from ₹295.36 lakh crore in FY24. Similarly, Real GVA is estimated at ₹168.91 lakh crore in FY25, showing a 6.4% growth from ₹158.74 lakh crore in FY24, while Nominal GVA is expected to reach ₹292.64 lakh crore, registering a 9.3% growth.

These estimates reflect positive trends in consumption and key sectors, indicating steady economic growth despite a moderation in real GDP growth rates compared to FY24.

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